Friday, 10 June 2016

The BREXIT debate: What must the investors of Britain and twenty seven countries of European Union do?

BREXIT= BRITISH EXIT

BREXIT= CONUNDRUM IN EUROPEAN UNION?

I was listening to the speech of British MP, Mr. Boris Johnson speaking in support of the British exit from the European Union a couple of days ago and found something very interesting in his mode and manner of speech. Right from the outset he seemed extremely animated trying to convince the audience how important it is for Britain to exit from the European union. And it reminded me of one of the seminal books of the late eighties , 'The Empire Writes Back: Theory and Practice in Post-Colonial Literature'  a  book on postcolonialism, written by Bill Ashcroft, Gareth Griffiths and Helen Tiffin. 

Mr. Johnson spoke eloquently and quite well. He spoke of hope against fear and gloom,spoke of taking back 'control' , of economic policies, trade and 'border', take back control of democracy.And the bottom line, he felt ,was about the fundamental question of democracy! He referred to the EU referendum as the once in a life time opportunity.And in a subtle way he was trying to push forward the argument that this very referendum on EU ,on 23rd June will be  a lesson in democracy!Indeed!!
As a citizen of India ,I felt wow!! Such a speech! A country, which imperialised two-third of the entire world by 1900 and still with a monarchical head can speak of the 'hope' that 'democracy' shall bring. 

It also made me realise that it is now no more a 'eurocentric' versus 'eorocentric' debate but it is indeed a movement towards Brito-petalistic(my coinage) world view.Who stands to gain? Who shall vote whether to stay with EU or to exit? Who stands to lose? Economics tell us none.It is not about eating more pieces of cake mind you. It is more of policies ,actions initiated and  finding newer markets among demographics. It as usual shall be about more noise than substance. What shall the Britons decide?

1.They shall decide whether the BREXIT shall really cause a 100 billion shock to the European.

2.They shall decide whether exiting shall really push up the costs of day to day living , so much so that it shall take nearly a decade and a half to come out of this shock!

3.They shall decide whether they want to pay an annual sum of over a billion pound to the EU!

4.They shall decide what democracy means or whether it is really something that is applicable to them. 

5.They shall decide which model is better-a nuclear family or a joint one?

Now I gave a cursory hint of the book 'The Empire Writes Back: Theory and Practice in Post-Colonial Literature' and moved on to speak of something else.Why ? Because it struck me,right or wrong, that Empire today is surely writing back. Remember that  people from 54 commonwealth countries who resides in Britain are eligible to vote.

Britain speaks whose voice? Now?

It may be interesting to observe that the people of these commonwealth countries are 'texts' themselves willing to negotiate with 'eurocentrism' !!!

Britain have millions of such residents.And as far as the consequences are concerned some analysts have dismissed the debate of BREXIT as bogus and not worthy of debate. But every noise has its own energy. And negative noises depress the people more.

The European markets are slimming and burning their fat heavily, while  I am writing this blog. It may be possible that the markets correct by a couple of percent more in the few weeks to come. May be even by 10%! Then there will be analysts coming up with the gloom and doom theory! Remember Marc Faber? And the investors, the small ones shall run helter skelter looking for solace and shelter! But to all the investors from Europe and also Britain, it may be a great opportunity to look for excellent stocks for a bargain price!It may be possible to look beyond the major indices where opportunity shall come for cherry picking. And if the investors are able to do the cherry picking after a sound study of the company  fundamentals they shall do very well for themselves. How can we forget how the Grexit bothered the markets world wide, a couple of years back, only to  bring back sanity after a couple of uneasy months.Greek crisis apparently was a more major crisis to handle.Some shorters shall cash in but it is pure suicide to buy a wrong story however critical it may sound.

BREXIT shall and must provide reasonable opportunities to all the long term investors. This can be said with some degree of optimism.


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