In the last few posts , I was trying to argue that the market can correct up to 10 or 15%. But if that had happened over a sustained period of time people would have ignored it and would have gone on investing ,irrespective of chances of a fall or rise! Just like it has happened in India when the SENSEX corrected fro 30,000 to 24,000 over a period of almost one year , the market bottoming out in February, this year. But look at the major indices in Europe ,United States of America ,and Asian markets. They are falling heavily.Friday, say panic selling. Or the people didn't perhaps get time to sell. It was the mammoth mutual fund houses and the individual heavy weights that went on a selling spree. Doubts are strong that there has been naked short selling across the globe.Experts are divided over the possible of BREXIT and to be in earnest ,no one has the answer .I guess all of us have to go through the experiences of economic downturn when the results of BREXIT translates into action and reaction.
Lessons of panic have been learnt. Lessons from sustained depression are yet to come and there is a great possibility that people learn them,the hard way.I am no expert to predict doomsday, but it takes no expertise in a country which has seen colonial atrocities ,partition,war and famine.Every time India took a knock and every time it came back. Surprisingly enough, no one gives credit to the governance in India and the extremely resilient banking system because of which India always emerged unscathed.And I am saying this despite the mind boggling NPA's and NPL'S! True,it is that the banking went for astonishing under performance since 2008 but, the ability of the R.B.I has always seen balance restored in the economic system. And the salient feature of the central bank's success has always come from its ability to have tremendous control over inflation.
BREXIT has opened series of possibilities. Most of them are political in nature,and which for now is bound to underplay economics. What shall suffer most? The pound,it seems in the long run. The Britons have been astute negotiators, going by their historical performances.It may be possible, that Pound pulls back in the the next decade!New bloc formations are possible. Newer ways of economic transactions are possible. Alternate currencies may become popular in the next few years to come. IT's in spite of serious pruning in their CAPEX and sells and PAT may survive because of this alternate currency transactions.Yes! I am surely pointing at the Bitcoin currency! But that is another story to tell.
As we have seen, over decades, that the worst crisis in the market spreads over a very long period of time. It actually took around nine long years,almost a decade to see SENSEX crossing the psychological barrier of 22,000. And the crash that came in January ,2008 was one of the first crashes. Years of ominous news and events kept the markets suppressed. Investors lost confidence. Choose the 'safer' option of staying invested in fixed deposits and buying bonds and loosing out ,every given days the possibilities of wealth creation. India,to be frank and honest is over valued. So it makes little sense to invest in the indices,right now. Of course, you cannot ignore specific pockets which still has undervalued stocks. And make no mistake that if the global markets continue to fall ,like now, we may see Indian equity markets correcting by another 8 to 9%. We cannot ignore the world economy. Neither can we ignore the fact that a major chunk of Indian exports have markets in European Union and Britain! But for how long can we ignore these companies,exporting to the European union and Britain ? The companies both automobile, IT's are seeing a heavy correction . The auto ancillaries are not far behind. But at a particular point of time these companies shall become undervalued.
There is not an iota of doubt in that. But the major cause of worry can be only after a couple of years. Britons,majority of them see themselves as not so European. There is no problem in how you want to create or project your own identity ,but there is a difference between showcasing one's own identity and exhibition of mindless snobbery! Some of the reports and videos of people gathering outside mosques in England and shouting slogans against a particular religion,which I feel is unacceptable. A man is asked to go back or speak English 'properly'! The man surprised ,can only retort ,'I am born here!' Xenophobia at its best! What becomes the segregating point of being a Briton and not one? The skin colour? The way you speak a language? The way you practice a religion? Probable causes cannot be ignored! Maybe the truth among other truths is that the religion,language,colour,culture of the majority is what rules the country,politics,economics and skill too!Thankfully, the BREXIT euphoria opens up the possibility to veer into the nakedness of some people.
Let us be hopeful though. As Bill Gates opined in a Stanford speech made in 2013, "Optimism is often dismissed as false hope," "But there is also false hopelessness."
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