A section of the media has referred to BREXIT as 'divorce'! Some have cautioned of an imminent recession in Great Britain. Some predicting the doomsday, in near future, has cautioned that from now on it is going to be a blame game all round. Whatever it maybe , one of the truths that remain , as of now at least, is how to deal with the economic and financial outfall. The commodities have taken a tumble across the world. The British pound-sterling nose dived to a 10% lower circuit. The Euro is trading at its lowest since its inception since 1999. The FTSE100, CAC40, DAX, major indices in Europe all tradind lower by 4 to 8%. Look at Dow Jones and NASDAQ ! Look at NIKKEI225, KOSPI, HANG SENG! All trading down by over 3% ! And that is not all! It is not abot the percentage of fall. It is more than that. Look at the fear that has taken the world in its grip! All are busy selling their assets to salvage whatever they can !
Amidst the conundrum and mayhem there is hardly one that can offer solace.The people are scared more of the consequences of BREXIT than the imminent one week to two week fall in the share markets. It is very interesting to find that the referendum in Britain ,voting for the exit won by a 4% majority. And within Britain the division is also very glaring. Scotland, London and Northern Ireland voted for staying with the European Union! However the referendum doesn't mean that Great Britain exits tomorrow. It is not that easy. English Prime Minister ,David Cameron shall exit in the month of October. And according to BBC, for Great Britain to exit they shall have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. And the invocation includes a lot of unforeseen legal complexities!
It may take more than two to three years before the leave or exit is formalised and allows Great Britain to work outside the European Union. Negotiations shall be at its nadir ;this leaves no doubt in anyone. BREXIT had been a popular humanist debate in the last couple of months. It was seen as an economic disaster and commercial suicide by Britain. From now on the political ramifications shall hold sway over all subsequent events to come. Shall the Dutch seek exit after Britain? Possible! Shall the French , Germans or Italians seek exit fro the Union? Possible! Who wants to stay in a boat that seems moving towards self-destruction! Not only this , one of the major political swings may find United States of America regain some of its former glory as economic and political powerhouse! China may suddenly become a very important negotiator in this regard! Russia can and surely will try to benefit from the current imbroglio and wriggle out of the faux pas it found itself in the recent years.
Who benefits the most? The answer is no one! Economic principles are inherently complex and more difficult to implement countered by alternate theories. The world has seen around 5% destruction of wealth today in average.No country has remained insulated fro the ripple effect.And hence the question that arises in everyone is what can lead Britain to take such a risk ,knowing fully well the destruction it can usher in the economic world.
1.If Great Britain takes a call on putting limit on workers fro European Union in, it is very possible that countries remaining in the European Union do take similar actions.
2.There can be restricted movement of the UK citizens in mainland Europe.
3. All the major business and commerce treaties have to be re-negotiated.
4. Problems can brew in Scotland and Northern Ireland as they have decided against the exist. The political ramifications can be very real.
5. Investments in bonds and treasury bills shall be severely affected. With Britain bringing down the deposit interests, majority of the people shall suffer because of low yield on investments.
6. The impact on the pound-sterling is surely going to give a nightmare to UK based companies with huge Forex losses.
7. While countries like Japan are going for devaluation of their currencies to boost up trade, it surely is going to have a negative impact on UK.
8. Free benefits like education and medical expenses borne by the UK Government so far may now be considered to be partially borne by UK citizens.
9. Pensioners shall be affected with low interest on deposit rates.
10. Cost of travelling and rentals shall go up.
11. UK may slip into imminent recession.
12. UK may be blamed for aggravation of refugee and migrant crisis.
13. With exit, a free play in European markets shall no more be available.
14. UK's external and foreign policies and ambitions shall suffer because of a negative sentiment of European countries.
15. Different asst classes shall be severely dented in next couple of months.
Great Britain has humongous work in hand. It is sitting below a double edged sword. In order to stabilise pound Bank of England has to bring down interests on deposits. This means lesser money in hands of people for consumption. With lesser consumption there will be lesser production and which may lead to jobs cuts and voluntary retirement. The banks shall suffer. The luxury goods shall suffer. The automobile sector shall suffer. The housing and housing finance companies shall suffer. A chain reaction shall set in. Of course this crisis is in no way similar to the Lehman Brothers' crisis. But caution is well advised.
What shall people do now?
There can be no one liner in this. However some possibilities can be weighed.
1. If people have surplus money for now they should not be in a hurry to invest.
2.Well diversify your portfolio. This means increase your portfolio allocation to gold , maybe up to 8% maximum.Wait for the equity markets to stabilise. Do not invest now. I repeat , do not invest money right now in equity markets.Do not invest in bonds and treasury bills right now.
3. Remember in moments of economic crisis cash is king.
4.Do not go for luxury cars,now.
5. Do not be in haste to buy houses, now.
6. Do not engage in gambling. Not at least in. equity markets. Markets are not big casino houses.
7. Defer immediate gratification and even if it means deferring investments to increase cash flow.
8. Set up a contingency fund immediately.
9. Behave like a 8 year old child when it comes to saving money in piggy banks or even shelling out couple of pounds.
10 Be an uncle Scrooge for a couple of months.
11. Do not be generous in loaning funds to friends. I know it sounds terrible and harsh but 'that is how it breaks cookie wise!'
12. Imagine you are preserving a being future for your children by being cheapskate!
13. Avail of a carpool instead of personal vehicles.
14. The above couple of cautionary advice will appear childish after a couple of months. You can throw caution to the winds then!
Amidst the conundrum and mayhem there is hardly one that can offer solace.The people are scared more of the consequences of BREXIT than the imminent one week to two week fall in the share markets. It is very interesting to find that the referendum in Britain ,voting for the exit won by a 4% majority. And within Britain the division is also very glaring. Scotland, London and Northern Ireland voted for staying with the European Union! However the referendum doesn't mean that Great Britain exits tomorrow. It is not that easy. English Prime Minister ,David Cameron shall exit in the month of October. And according to BBC, for Great Britain to exit they shall have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. And the invocation includes a lot of unforeseen legal complexities!
It may take more than two to three years before the leave or exit is formalised and allows Great Britain to work outside the European Union. Negotiations shall be at its nadir ;this leaves no doubt in anyone. BREXIT had been a popular humanist debate in the last couple of months. It was seen as an economic disaster and commercial suicide by Britain. From now on the political ramifications shall hold sway over all subsequent events to come. Shall the Dutch seek exit after Britain? Possible! Shall the French , Germans or Italians seek exit fro the Union? Possible! Who wants to stay in a boat that seems moving towards self-destruction! Not only this , one of the major political swings may find United States of America regain some of its former glory as economic and political powerhouse! China may suddenly become a very important negotiator in this regard! Russia can and surely will try to benefit from the current imbroglio and wriggle out of the faux pas it found itself in the recent years.
Who benefits the most? The answer is no one! Economic principles are inherently complex and more difficult to implement countered by alternate theories. The world has seen around 5% destruction of wealth today in average.No country has remained insulated fro the ripple effect.And hence the question that arises in everyone is what can lead Britain to take such a risk ,knowing fully well the destruction it can usher in the economic world.
1.If Great Britain takes a call on putting limit on workers fro European Union in, it is very possible that countries remaining in the European Union do take similar actions.
2.There can be restricted movement of the UK citizens in mainland Europe.
3. All the major business and commerce treaties have to be re-negotiated.
4. Problems can brew in Scotland and Northern Ireland as they have decided against the exist. The political ramifications can be very real.
5. Investments in bonds and treasury bills shall be severely affected. With Britain bringing down the deposit interests, majority of the people shall suffer because of low yield on investments.
6. The impact on the pound-sterling is surely going to give a nightmare to UK based companies with huge Forex losses.
7. While countries like Japan are going for devaluation of their currencies to boost up trade, it surely is going to have a negative impact on UK.
8. Free benefits like education and medical expenses borne by the UK Government so far may now be considered to be partially borne by UK citizens.
9. Pensioners shall be affected with low interest on deposit rates.
10. Cost of travelling and rentals shall go up.
11. UK may slip into imminent recession.
12. UK may be blamed for aggravation of refugee and migrant crisis.
13. With exit, a free play in European markets shall no more be available.
14. UK's external and foreign policies and ambitions shall suffer because of a negative sentiment of European countries.
15. Different asst classes shall be severely dented in next couple of months.
Great Britain has humongous work in hand. It is sitting below a double edged sword. In order to stabilise pound Bank of England has to bring down interests on deposits. This means lesser money in hands of people for consumption. With lesser consumption there will be lesser production and which may lead to jobs cuts and voluntary retirement. The banks shall suffer. The luxury goods shall suffer. The automobile sector shall suffer. The housing and housing finance companies shall suffer. A chain reaction shall set in. Of course this crisis is in no way similar to the Lehman Brothers' crisis. But caution is well advised.
What shall people do now?
There can be no one liner in this. However some possibilities can be weighed.
1. If people have surplus money for now they should not be in a hurry to invest.
2.Well diversify your portfolio. This means increase your portfolio allocation to gold , maybe up to 8% maximum.Wait for the equity markets to stabilise. Do not invest now. I repeat , do not invest money right now in equity markets.Do not invest in bonds and treasury bills right now.
3. Remember in moments of economic crisis cash is king.
4.Do not go for luxury cars,now.
5. Do not be in haste to buy houses, now.
6. Do not engage in gambling. Not at least in. equity markets. Markets are not big casino houses.
7. Defer immediate gratification and even if it means deferring investments to increase cash flow.
8. Set up a contingency fund immediately.
9. Behave like a 8 year old child when it comes to saving money in piggy banks or even shelling out couple of pounds.
10 Be an uncle Scrooge for a couple of months.
11. Do not be generous in loaning funds to friends. I know it sounds terrible and harsh but 'that is how it breaks cookie wise!'
12. Imagine you are preserving a being future for your children by being cheapskate!
13. Avail of a carpool instead of personal vehicles.
14. The above couple of cautionary advice will appear childish after a couple of months. You can throw caution to the winds then!
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