Bringing black money in? No ! Replace the 500 and 1000 rupee currency in circulation!

WOW!
REALLY?
GIMMICK?

Well being cynical and skeptical is very much an intellectual activity ! I never had courage to deny it! But sometimes I love fairy tales and willingly suspend disbelief!

The honourable prime minister of India, Sri Narendra Modi, has declared that the existing ₹  500 and  ₹ 1000 in circulation shall cease to have any value from midnight. Hence all the people in possession of these currency notes must deposit them with the banks or post offices and get other currencies in exchange. The banks shall reportedly remain closed for two consecutive days to adequately prepare themselves to absorb all these notes in circulation. The banks and other empowered agencies shall start accepting these notes from 10th of November till December 30th. 

Now! What shall happen ? There is already a declared amount of around 64,000 crores this September. 

Long term implications?  

It shall be a big damn positive !!!

But the skeptic always doubt!

Yes the really big leviathan's are beyond control ,depositing their wealth in the tax havens. 
Switzerland is an old story now!!!

What shall happen when this comes to play?

1. people panic.
2. the stock markets panic.
3. People with undeclared currency notes panic.
4. Hawala doesn't!
5. Gold merchants don't!
6.Leviathans don't!!
7. We don't have to pay taxes for 20 long years!!!

We have 20% to 30% of a nearly unbelievable amount , may be amounting to a trillion or trillions sufficient to erase any fiscal deficit for next two decades.

The taxes collected on the forced declaration of currencies shall indeed be a high cheer for the foreign investors. And it shall make India ,the country,\ with maximum investor's confidence.

Bit once beaten ,twice shy!

Shall it happen?

Shall the senior citizens be spared of the burden of unnecessary taxes?

Only this end of the fiscal year and the budget shall say!!!

Markets correcting not crashing right now! Wait for three to four more years for a real crash!

In the last few posts , I was trying to argue that the market can correct up to 10 or 15%. But if that had happened over a sustained period of time people would have ignored it and would have gone on investing ,irrespective of chances of a fall or rise! Just like it has happened in India when the SENSEX corrected fro 30,000 to 24,000 over a period of almost  one year , the market bottoming out in February, this year. But look at the major indices in Europe ,United States of America ,and Asian markets. They are falling heavily.Friday, say panic selling. Or the people didn't perhaps get time to sell. It was the mammoth mutual fund houses and the individual heavy weights that went on a selling spree. Doubts are strong that there has been naked short selling across the globe.Experts are divided over the possible of BREXIT and to be in earnest ,no one has the answer .I guess all of us have to go through the experiences of economic downturn when the results of BREXIT translates into action and reaction.

Lessons of panic have been learnt. Lessons from sustained depression are yet to come and there is a great possibility that people learn them,the hard way.I am no expert to predict doomsday, but it takes no expertise in a country which has seen  colonial atrocities ,partition,war and famine.Every time India took a knock and every time it came back. Surprisingly enough, no one gives credit to the governance in India and the extremely resilient banking system because of which India always emerged unscathed.And I am saying this despite the mind boggling NPA's and NPL'S! True,it is that the banking went for astonishing under performance since 2008  but, the ability of the R.B.I  has always seen balance restored in the economic system. And the salient feature of the central bank's success has always come from its ability to have tremendous control over inflation. 

BREXIT has opened series of possibilities. Most of them are political in nature,and which for now is bound to underplay economics. What shall suffer most? The pound,it seems in the long run. The Britons have been astute negotiators, going by their historical performances.It may be possible, that Pound pulls back in the the next decade!New bloc formations are possible. Newer ways of economic transactions are possible. Alternate currencies may become popular in the next few years to come. IT's in spite of serious pruning in their CAPEX and sells and PAT may survive because of this alternate currency transactions.Yes! I am surely pointing at the Bitcoin currency! But that is another story to tell. 

As we have seen, over decades, that the worst crisis in the market spreads over a very long period of time. It actually took around nine long years,almost a decade to see SENSEX crossing the psychological barrier of 22,000. And the crash that came in January ,2008 was one of the first crashes. Years of ominous news and events kept the markets suppressed. Investors lost confidence. Choose the 'safer' option of staying invested in fixed deposits and buying bonds and loosing out ,every given days the possibilities of wealth creation. India,to be frank and honest is over valued. So it makes little sense to invest in the indices,right now.  Of course, you cannot ignore specific pockets which still has undervalued stocks. And make no mistake that if the global markets continue to fall ,like now, we may see Indian equity markets correcting by another 8 to 9%. We cannot ignore the world economy. Neither can we ignore the fact that a major chunk of Indian exports have markets in European Union and Britain! But for how long can we ignore these companies,exporting to the European union and Britain ? The companies both automobile, IT's are seeing a heavy correction . The auto ancillaries are not far behind. But at a particular point of time these companies shall become undervalued. 

There is not an iota of doubt in that. But the major cause of worry  can be only after a couple of years. Britons,majority of them see themselves as not so European. There is no problem in how you want to create or project your own identity ,but there is a difference between showcasing one's own identity and exhibition of mindless snobbery! Some of the reports and videos of people gathering outside mosques in England  and shouting  slogans against a particular religion,which I feel is unacceptable.  A man is asked to go back or speak English 'properly'! The man surprised ,can only retort ,'I am born here!' Xenophobia at its best! What becomes the segregating point of being a Briton and not one? The skin colour? The way you speak a language? The way you practice a religion? Probable causes cannot be ignored! Maybe the truth among other truths is that the religion,language,colour,culture of the majority is what rules the country,politics,economics and skill too!Thankfully, the BREXIT euphoria opens up the possibility to veer into the nakedness of some people.

Let us be hopeful though. As Bill Gates opined in a Stanford speech made in 2013, "Optimism is often dismissed as false hope," "But there is also false hopelessness."

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

Worry for Indian diaspora? There are reasons to worry!

Not often do you walk in wilderness and find a beautiful house made of chocolate and cake. And if you have managed to ward of the wolves and foxes and wild boar and bears and other such animals which create terror in the human mind, you can be rest assured that there has to be a witch waiting for you in that beautiful house. The witch shall welcome you , give you warm food and a soft bed to sleep on and when you wake up early in the morning , you shall find that a huge cauldron is there on the fire and you are going to be cooked and eaten later with salami and bread. The cherries that you have collected during your directionless movement in the forest shall be preserved and used for making pickles . The pickles shall again be used for another wanted visitor in the house!

Such is human fear! And more terrible is human greed and hatred. The one ,you desperately and emotionally and vehemently believed to be your second home is no more your home now. At least you have a seeking suspicion that it may be taken away from you. You start preparing for the inevitable. You suddenly find your best friend from France is leaving the country. Your football coach from Spain , has come to bid adiós! Your zookeeper from Norway united with his family. Now a fictional environment of terror and unease work in the mind. Baseless though!  Yet very, very uneasy!

There is a substantial population of British Indians living in Britain. And the number is not a small one. It amounts to around one and half million Indians! And interestingly all of them are extremely skilled in their own fields. Over 900000 people of Indian origin living in England are into business, big. very big, mammoth businesses and even the small ones. There are software engineers, skilled doctors, renowned professors, building contractors, bakers, restaurant owners and of course the world renowned business magnets. And every year the Indian multinational companies are sending thousands of well trained youths to Britain to join the offices in that country. And this not so small skill outsourcing is adding both value and revenue to the concerned countries and companies.

The cause of worry for the Indian diaspora is not overblown especially when we see Britain being so divided over the 'influx' of foreign workers in Britain. The BREXIT , mind you, may open a can of worms in the next couple of years to come. The pro-BREXIT supporters among their major demands have categorically called for a stop to the workers' influx in the country from the European Union. And there is no reason, why they won't ask for a stop on the movement of skilled workers from non -European   countries once the process of BREXIT is complete. The major cause of worry can be the rise of discrimination, bordering on colour, caste , religion! Now this is just a possibility and no blame game. 'Terrorism' ,can be a major reason cited to stop the influx . 

The Indian diaspora is a mixed community of religions, languages and cultures.And interestingly, the British Pakistanis and British Bangladeshis are considered to be part of the large Indian diaspora and not seen differently. What happens at the borders is so different in that country. There a Pakistani chacha bakes a beautiful cake for the birthday of an Indian niece! All living in an all accommodating culture! Not a part of fiction.  A verbatim received from my brother,Dr. Anindya Sundar Mondal, who is a practicing doctor in  England!He has been living in England for over a decade ! Yet people like him is still not certain of a secure and easy post-BREXIT era!

What are the causes of worry then? 

1. One of the major worries that may play over time is the problem of outsourcing by Indian IT companies.They have to re-negotiate with two financial powerhouses Britain and Europe now.

2. Skilled IT engineers from India may have a stiff competition in years to come. 

3.IT companies may be asked to shell more cash in terms of salary and perks to local software skills rather than take in skilled workers at a much less international labour rate.

4. Interestingly, the IT professionals from India and China are paid much less than their local counterparts. So much for outsourcing!

5.There may be great uncertainty over jobs both existing as well as future ones for the people coming into England.

6.The skilled and specialized professionals may be asked to leave in cases of extremes.

7. Educational aspirants from India may suffer on account of unprecedented pay hikes in fees.
8.Fears of recession may erode the sense of mutual trust and dependency!

Everyone have stories to tell. The question is how do we know when a nonfiction financial news is converted in to fictional horror stories.If Britain stops intake of skilled labours ,it is quite possible that there can be no near sourcing for Britain itself. And European Union is no small a economic power with countries like France and Germany in it. But as an eternal optimist that human being  always is , let us keep our fingers crossed.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

BREXIT is here! How to deal with events and consequences!

A section of the media has referred to BREXIT as 'divorce'! Some have cautioned of an imminent recession in Great Britain. Some predicting the doomsday, in near future, has cautioned that from now on it is going to be a blame game all round. Whatever it maybe , one of  the truths that remain , as of now at least, is how to deal with the economic and financial outfall. The commodities have taken a tumble across the world. The British pound-sterling nose dived to a 10% lower circuit. The Euro is trading at its lowest since its inception since 1999. The FTSE100, CAC40, DAX, major indices in Europe all tradind lower by 4 to 8%. Look at Dow Jones and NASDAQ ! Look at NIKKEI225, KOSPI, HANG SENG! All trading down by over 3% ! And that is not all! It is not abot the percentage of fall. It is more than that. Look at the fear that has taken the world in its grip! All are busy selling their assets to salvage whatever they can !

Amidst the conundrum and mayhem there is hardly one that can offer solace.The people are scared more of the consequences of BREXIT than  the imminent one week to two week fall in the share markets. It is very interesting to find that the referendum in Britain ,voting for the exit won by a 4% majority. And within Britain the division is also very glaring. Scotland, London and Northern Ireland voted for staying with the European Union! However the referendum doesn't mean that Great Britain exits tomorrow. It is not that easy. English Prime Minister ,David Cameron shall exit in the month of October. And according to BBC, for Great Britain to exit they shall have to  invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. And the invocation includes a lot of unforeseen legal complexities!

It may take more than two to three years before the leave or exit is formalised and allows Great Britain to work outside the European Union. Negotiations shall be at its nadir ;this leaves no doubt in anyone. BREXIT had been a popular humanist debate in the last couple of months. It was seen as an economic disaster and commercial suicide by Britain. From now on the political ramifications shall hold sway over all subsequent events to come. Shall the Dutch seek exit after Britain? Possible! Shall the French , Germans or Italians seek exit fro the Union? Possible! Who wants to stay in a boat that seems moving towards self-destruction! Not only this , one of the  major political swings may find United States of America regain some of its former glory as economic and political powerhouse! China may suddenly become a very important negotiator in this regard! Russia can and surely will try to benefit from the current imbroglio and wriggle out of the faux pas it found itself in the recent years.

Who benefits the most? The answer is no one! Economic principles are inherently complex and more difficult to implement countered  by alternate theories. The world has seen around 5% destruction of wealth today in average.No  country has remained insulated fro the ripple effect.And hence the question that arises in everyone is what can lead Britain to take such a risk ,knowing fully well the destruction it can usher in the economic world.

1.If Great Britain takes a call on putting limit on workers fro European Union in, it is very possible that countries remaining in the European Union do take similar actions.

2.There can be restricted movement of the UK citizens in mainland Europe.

3. All the major business and commerce treaties have to be re-negotiated.

4. Problems can brew in Scotland and Northern Ireland as they have decided against the exist. The political ramifications can be very real.

5. Investments in bonds and treasury bills shall be severely affected. With Britain bringing down the deposit interests, majority of the people shall suffer because of low yield on investments.

6. The impact on the pound-sterling is surely going to give a nightmare to UK based companies with huge Forex losses.

7. While countries like Japan are going for devaluation of their currencies to boost up trade, it surely is going to have a negative impact on UK.

8.  Free benefits  like education and medical expenses borne  by the UK Government so far may now be considered to be partially borne by UK citizens.

9. Pensioners shall be affected with low interest on deposit rates.

10. Cost of travelling and rentals shall go up.

11. UK may slip into imminent recession.

12. UK may be blamed for aggravation of refugee and migrant crisis.

13. With exit, a free play in European markets shall no more be available.

14. UK's external and foreign policies and ambitions shall suffer because of a negative sentiment of European countries.

15. Different asst classes shall be severely dented in next couple of months.

Great Britain has humongous work in hand. It is sitting below a double edged sword. In order to stabilise pound Bank of England has to bring down interests on deposits. This means lesser money in hands of people for consumption. With lesser consumption there will be lesser production  and which may lead to jobs cuts and voluntary retirement. The banks shall suffer. The luxury goods shall suffer. The automobile sector shall suffer. The housing and housing finance companies shall suffer. A chain reaction shall set in. Of course this crisis is in no way similar to the Lehman Brothers' crisis. But caution is well advised.


What shall people do now?

There can be no one liner in this. However some possibilities can be weighed.

1. If people have surplus money for now they should not be in a hurry to invest.

2.Well diversify your portfolio. This means  increase your portfolio allocation to gold , maybe up to 8% maximum.Wait for the equity markets to stabilise. Do not invest now. I repeat , do not invest money right now in equity markets.Do not invest in bonds and treasury bills right now.

3. Remember in moments of economic crisis cash is king.

4.Do not go for luxury cars,now.

5. Do not be in haste to buy houses, now.

6. Do not engage in gambling. Not at least in. equity markets. Markets are not big casino houses.

7. Defer immediate gratification and even if it means deferring investments to increase cash flow.

8. Set up a contingency fund immediately.

9. Behave like a 8 year old child when it comes to saving money in piggy banks or even shelling out couple of pounds.

10 Be an uncle Scrooge for a couple of months.

11. Do not be generous in loaning funds to friends. I know it sounds terrible and harsh but 'that is how it breaks cookie wise!'

12. Imagine you are preserving  a being  future for your children by being cheapskate!

13. Avail of a carpool instead of personal vehicles.

14. The above couple of cautionary advice will appear childish after a couple of months. You can throw caution to the winds then!

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

BREXIT, REXIT and few other noises. What are we planning?

The week started with a bang. In stark contrast to the last week , the markets as if were rebelling against their own mindset. And satisfied with the tremendous noise created by BREXIT, the markets were falling. There was significant selling around the globe. And then adding salt to the injury ,the chief of R.B.I(Reserve Bank of India), Dr. Raghuram Rajan decided to call it a day from September onward. Thankfully the day of his announcement was a Saturday and the markets couldn't bite more into the tender flesh. Yet the market regulator SEBI(  The Securities and Exchange Board of India) asked the exchanges across India including the two major indices NSE and BSE to beef up securities related to the securities platform so as to prevent any unwarranted short-selling. The media,as hyperactive as it can be, referred to  Dr. Rajan's exit very fondly as RE-XIT! As if BREXIT was not enough to up the TRP rating of the channels!

And then yesterday experts and analysts forecasted a black Monday! The cheesy ones of course said that the market will fall and then recover after the BREXIT  is over, there is good monsoon and the GDP continues to grow at a rate that is better than all other developing economies in the world. I thought, maybe I should do nothing. Let me only predict that in next ten years ,there will be some good monsoon and some not so good ones! Okay let me also predict this , that in next couple of years plenty of people will be wealthy and many people shall remain not so wealthy!   One final one! In these few years to come, I shall be writing hundreds of blogs! Some will be good and some pretty ordinary! That is it ! No one predicted even on last Friday , that the European markets were going to rebound by around 3% on the upper side. So if we cannot predict what is going to happen the next day , is it not true that something essentially so complex as BREXIT cannot have a single outcome or fall out. People of Britain who is going for the referendum this week, is still not sure about the outcome. It has essentially become a debate of remaining in a joint family or leaving for a nuclear family.

The Indians are very habituated living and growing in a joint family. They live with their uncle, aunt, grand father and grandmother, parents , brothers and sisters, Ramu Kaka and Laxmi chachi (neighbours who have become more than blood relations!) Now people living in these undivided families know that there are great advantages in living with people!

Advantages of living in a joint family:

1. Everyone makes some financial contribution to a common fund which is used for the expenses and contingency.

2. There is a sense of commune working as  same food is served to all the members and also from the same kitchen ,irrespective of their proportion of contribution.

3. The weaker members are protected financially and emotionally from the harsher realities of life.

4. All are equal shareholders in the property.

5. Every member is convinced of 'One for all! All for one!"

6.Happiness and distress are shared by all!

Disadvantages of living in a joint family:

1.Disparity among high and low earning members of the family.

2. Lack of self-esteem among financially weak members.

3. Forced to curve and practice restrain on individual dreams.

4.Creates lazy and  dependent  members.

5. General prevails over individual talent.

The nuclear family by contrast is a much smaller unit! Usually the father and the mother along with their children constitute such a unit in the society.In the twenty first century by chance or by circumstances the people are forced to live away from their main family. Of course like the joint one this too has some characteristic features.

Advantages of living in a nuclear family:

1. The ability to take individual decisions and with greater degree of freedom.

2. Women are better adapted to childcare and fulfillment of desires.

3. Less the crowd, less the interaction and hence lesser chances of family disputes!

4. Individual wealth creation and greater degree of autonomy!

Disadvantages of living in a nuclear family:

1. Isolation and loneliness. 

2.Insecurity and skepticism.

3. Financial disadvantages.

4.Lack of self-confidence.

5. Development of selfish motives.

6. Forced to take decisions ,both economic as well as emotional.

And why is the joint-nuclear family debate so important in case of BREXIT? It is because the Britishers have to weigh every pros and cons in this regard. And their decision shall be vital. It may be a possibility that Britain, even if they exit comes back to the European Union after a couple of years. It may also be possible that they choose not to exit. Both ways , the implications will span over a significantly long period of time than people do expect. Some companies will do due diligence with respect to couple of quarters following the BREXIT saga.But that may be another story for then. 

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

Merger of State Bank of India and its five associate banks.Is it a fantastic news for the Indian economy and investors?

Today the cabinet approved the merger of India's largest Public Sector Bank ,State Bank of India along with five other associate banks. They are State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State Bank of Travancore, State Bank of Patiala, State Bank of Mysore and State Bank of Hyderabad and the Bharatiya Mahila Bank.As soon as the news came across there was a stupendous rally in the Indian markets. 

State Bank of Mysore hit the ceiling with an upper circuit of 20% closing the day at  Rs549.95.

State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur followed cue and also hit the upper circuit closing at Rs.599.50.

State Bank of Travancore closed at Rs. 479.60 ,199.99% up from previous days close!

And the total market capitalization of these three banks stood at a combined  Rs 10,233.04 crores or about 1,523.91 million dollars or grossly about 1 billion dollar. Not much isn't it? Especially when you see that the market capitalization of State Bank of India stands at  Rs 167,404.29 or grossly about 25 billion dollars. So fro a point of merger the more callous way of saying will be that The State Bank went for the acquisition of its own associate banks. And why is this decision taken? Most of the analysts opine that this is in fact going to work much in favour of State Bank of India!Some contrarian opinions are slowly following in. 

Sri Jayant Sinha ,the Minister of State for Finance, and a Member of Indian Parliament himself has a combined experience of over twenty five years and had acted as an investment fund manger before he entered politics. Couple of months ago he , in interview had stated with absolute certainty , that the need of the hour is to merger all the smaller Public Sector banks into 8-9 giant ones and that shall augur well for India. And today the cabinet took a step forward by deciding to merge the largest one with a couple of associates. And why has such a decision been taken? And to remind the readers the decision is a really important one. A couple of days ago moneycontrol.com. a leading financial website came up some really eery numbers. The information put forward by this website showed that the combined market capital of 28 public sector banks  was less than the market capital of one private sector bank ,HDFC Bank ,the behemoth in Indian banking industry!

Can you imagine that? What happened to all the public sector banks over the years? Problems have swept away any semblance of safety or security for these banks. Look at the problems for yourself:

1.Gross average NPA(Non Performing Assets)  for all these banks are between 6.7 to 7.8%! Now that is a lot of money! Think you have invested a sum as fixed deposit in a bank and it promised you to give a return of 7,5% every year as interest. But after one year when you wanted to check you fixed deposit ,you found that instead of the promised 7.5%  your deposit has come down by another 7..5%!!! Won.t you go mad? The same thing is happening for the Government of India! Every year these banks eat into the money allocated for Indian citizens in form of re-capitalisation  of banks.The need is to bring down the gross NPA to a believable level.

2. Willful defaulters! The liquor baron Vijay Mallaya has now been announced as a proclaimed offender who has silently left the country for a safe haven! And he is not the principal offender!

Here is the list of companies who have taken humongous debt from these banks:

Name of Company	Debt taken in crores
ADAG	1,25000
Vedanta	1.03,000
Essar Group	1,01,000
Adani Group	96,031
Jaypee Group	75,163
JSW Group	58,171
GMR Group	47,976
Lanco	47,102

Source: http://www.catchnews.com/

3.Problem in credit appraisal and lack of incentivization.

4. Window dressed balance sheets of the PSB'S ,according to author and economist, Subhomoy Bhattarcharya.

5.Shorting currencies or futures! (Just a remote possibility though!) However a case like JP Morgan Chase may happen in future Indian banking business.

6. Provisioning for future owing to some of the above few points.

Now let us come back to the question of  merger of public sector banks. How shall State Bank of India benefit?

Positives:

1. It is a thorough cost cutting measure. 

2. SBI gets access to over 9500 more branches , a huge saving into capital expenditure!

3. Its stand alone bank sheet balance improves significantly .

4. Access to couple of hundred million accounts.

5. Ability to rollover money in some ultra mega projects hence improving the eps of the company.

6. Enhanced work force.

7. Enhanced skilled labour.

8. Enhanced talent pool.

9. Decrease in advertisement costs and other miscellaneous costs that dents the bottom line.

10.Reduction in cost of deposits.

11. Diversification in business.

And what shall the contrarian analysts say?

Negatives:

1. One major challenge shall be staff integration.

2.The powerful labour unions across the country planning to disrupt the merger.

3.Efficient management of synergy.

4. Question on scalable business.

5. Direct Benefit Transfers,a Government of India scheme may be delayed according to allbankingsolutions.com.

6. Strategic localization of staffs shall meet fierce resistance.

7.Loss of information in the conundrum. 

8. Dent in profitability post merger.

9. Deals with different companies have to be re-negotiated!

10. Creating a behemoth is good but any sign of weakening crashes the market altogether!

Now here is a table of the 52 weeks high and low of some public sector banks:

Name of Bank	5 years high	5 years  low
State Bank of India	335.9	145.29
Bank of India	425.95	78.6
Indian Bank	265	60.50
Bank of Baroda	228.9	85.85
Punjab National Bank	240	69.4
Allahabad Bank	222	39.50

And this is caused by the tremendous distrust of the banks operations and their rising NPAs! So let us consider this event as a positive step towards banking reforms in the visible future. Hope the merger works and ushers in a new era for the banking sector!

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

The market is nervous right now. Let it get fearful!

The markets remain unhappy for 16 days a month. 10 days are market holidays. The brokers remain unhappy. The traders remain unhappy. The family of brokers and traders are unhappy because the brokers and traders are unhappy. The investors remain worried. Whenever they invest , they stocks go down. Whenever they sell their holdings their value go up. And yet we share posts on the social networking sites where it speaks of inner peace and how important it is to have great health than great wealth!

Are we happy? No! Human beings living in 21st century have learnt to develop scepticism. And it augurs well for them! They are not at peace with themselves. And the reasons are not difficult to find. When there is so much of disbelief, so much of distrust , you tend to rely on the experts and the analysts , who feed you along with the media what you do not want. And this comes from greed. But being greedy is not bad. Trust me ! I repeat, being greedy is not bad at one. But like discipline in all the phases and aspects in life, we have to discipline our greed too! Let me put it this way that disciplined greed  is the single most  important criteria for financial health, and ... mental health. 

Disciplined greed? What is that? Is this man talking nonsense ? May be? It is not The writer who is promoting the idea for the first time! Legendary investors have done it that is why they are legendary and worthy to be followed! Our respected teacher Mr. Warren Buffet have more than once reiterated the same idea which I have referred to as disciplined greed.As goes Mr Buffet's saying “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”! So has the time come for the investors to become greedy? And has the time come for people to invest sufficient amount of money in the markets? If you want the answer look at your own market. As for some concrete examples let us look at the Indian bourses. They are currently trading at 16-17  forward looking P/E. Look at the markets in the united States. These markets are also trading , believe me or not at the same 16-17 forward looking P/E.  Are they cheap according to your belief? If you think they are then go and invest! As far as experienced people are concerned , they may say well the markets , in no way, look cheap!

Now I had put emphasis on the need for disciplined greed. And when I said so I meant that it is important to curve your impulses , rein in your emotions of both greed as well as fear . Waiting for the opportunity to buy the right stocks at a reasonable price  and holding them for a long, very very long period of time. Sometimes the waiting period is so very long. The market does dot provide such opportunities for a long duration. And when it does we are not ready! Because we do not have sufficient cash to invest in. Or we have invested all of them whenever the market has rallied between 5 to 10%! Opportunity to invest comes  trickling and we have no container to collect them. This is the very reason that we must learn to restrain ourselves and wait. This waiting should be very much like waiting for the dream person of your life. She won't give you opportunity everyday but when she is ready and looks at you be prepared to hold her hands and give her a determined Yes!

Now what are the current problems in our hands that is troubling the markets around the world? Here is a probable list of some of them!

Bitter pills:

1. United States not willing to accept a higher interest rate regime!

2. The BREXIT imbroglio!

3.Devaluation of currency in Russia and Japan!

4. Job creation data worldwide!

5. Unemployment data worldwide!

6.GDP data worldwide. China is slowing. Only exception is India which currently have the highest GDP growth at 7.5%!

7.High market valuations!

8. Worry of noises made by doomsday predictors!  

Benign world climate:

1. No sign of bubble yet!

2. No signs of high inflation!

3. No signs of extreme consumer spending!

4. No sign of a bloody war in immediate future! Touch wood!

5.No sign of extreme political struggle!

6.No sign of military coup!

7.No sign of prime crisis!

8. Oil prices low

9. Gas prices low!

10. Metal and mineral prices low!

11. Steel prices reeling under pressure!

12. No sign of behemoths falling or going bankrupt!

And still worried? If you are serious about equity investing wait till the BREXIT imbroglio gets over! I am sure there will be great companies available at a bargain rate!

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

Beware!! Have you looked into these before investing in a company?

For most people, share market is a place where people gamble and make money. And the rich people and operators are hand in hand trapping and subsequently milking the investors' money. Such idea is not uncommon whether in developed or in developing countries.And when the markets correct themselves the most ardent enthusiasts give everyone a big smile and say "See! I said so!" And the poor long term believers shall have to remain silent for a long period of time because the bears are feeding fear into the markets , playing randomly with the inner fears of most people. And when there is a bull market you put money in any zebra, buffalo, kingfisher, pelican stocks and suddenly make 60-85% money on your invested capital within a couple of months and again there will be another enthusiast with a bigger grin who shall say "See! I said so!". The poor long term optimist again shall have nothing to say. He shall be staring blankly at the greed, that the bulls are feeding the market and there is a sudden and very rapid out surge of confidence in mind of  all investors.They won't remain prepared for anything sudden,out of turn ,or unwarranted. Another nose drive probably and the unprepared person shall desperately scramble out of the market with what ever capital he or she can salvage.

That is reality. And we are struck when we are the most confident. We are struck when we are the most unprepared. Hence there is an immediate need of grit, determination and patience. What is the point of having an 150 IQ if we have no patience? What is the point of holding fort with no grit or determination.

As the ancient Hindu RELIGIOUS Text GITA advises, we must be prepared for what we want to achieve. A person who jumps into the river,thinks of nothing else but reaching the other side. It is this aim for which he must use his grit and determination to reach his point. With no patience the man shall sink in the middle of the river.

What must we do then? We must be prepared to reach our goal. We must be patient enough to create wealth. And as for preparation we must learn to swim. No one saves an unprepared swimmer in the middle of the river. Hence the fundamental question of investing comes from the depth and love of learning. Hence my dear brothers and sisters of the world let us learn a little bit of the balance sheet everyday. It is not difficult. Trust me, all people in the world have already a balance sheet prepared for themselves in the subconscious mind ,which they use to balance between the bebit and credit in their everyday life.

If I go to a restaurant today, may be in order to balance I shall have to go veg for at least twice a week in the house. May be I shall have to cut on my pints of drink, cut out smoking amounting a couple of hundred cigarettes. May be that is how it works for some. So when we start a month keep a diary close at hand. Write down the cash flow on the right hand side. Write this down in the best of your handwriting!

WHY? BECAUSE YOUR BEST HANDWRITING GIVES YOU A SENSE OF PRIDE, 

RESPONSIBILITY AND DESIRE TO GO FOR THE REGULAR DISCIPLINE WHICH IN A 

WAY BECOMES TIRESOME IF YOU LOOK UPON IT AS THING THAT YOU ARE FORCED 

TO RECKON WITH. 

And after you start with this your duty shall be to open your computer after you come back from work, have spent some time with your kids, have taken your dinner, spoken sweet words to your other half and gave a warm good night to your parents(provide you live with them). You have 45 minute to one hour in which you go and give  a cursory glance to the Face book or Twitter or Linkedin or whatever , giving a couple of likes, sharing some funny videos, approving some friend requests ! And finally the time has come. Sit down with a note book .Open how to study balance sheet. Several pages shall come on Google. Choose any one of the websites which you feel you can be comfortable with and start learning.

And the very first thing you shall realise ,if you have already invested in the share market, is that you shall have an immediate urge to open the balance sheet of the company you have invested in. Whta do you do after that?

1.You look at the profit and loss account. Is the company profitable? Yes. Then is it increasing its profit steadily for the last five years? Yes ! Good! Move on to the next one.

2. Has the company been increasing its sales every year?Yes! Consistently? Yes! Good time to move on to the next fundamental.

3. Has the company raised any debt for the past five years? Yes! Then be cautious! What is the debt-equity ratio? 1.5? More ,a little less? Yes! Is the debt-equity ratio on the rise for last five years?Yes!
Now it is time to become more cautious!

4. Is the Capital Work-In-Progress much lesser than the total debt taken by the company? Be alert! If the answer is yes then you probably have invested in a rotting  fish!

5.What is the current ratio of the company? Is it around 1.13-1.2? If the answer is yes the start believing that the company is already in the quick sand!

6. If the company has high ROCE (Return on invested capital) then of course it makes good sense to invest in the company even with high debt equity ratio. This is what astute investor R.Balakrishnan believes in.

7. Is the ROE(Return on Equity) and ROCE clocking at least 15% for the last five years? If the answer is yes then you can safely invest in the company.

8. Is the company regularly paying dividend?

9.Is the company regularly paying taxes? If the answer is yes then go and invest in that company. It is because if a company does not pay taxes and yet shows high sales and profit then there must be something extremely fishy about the company!

10. Invest in companies which  have a high ROA (Return on Assets)!

11. Never ever forget the above ten points!

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

The BREXIT debate: What must the investors of Britain and twenty seven countries of European Union do?

BREXIT= BRITISH EXIT

BREXIT= CONUNDRUM IN EUROPEAN UNION?

I was listening to the speech of British MP, Mr. Boris Johnson speaking in support of the British exit from the European Union a couple of days ago and found something very interesting in his mode and manner of speech. Right from the outset he seemed extremely animated trying to convince the audience how important it is for Britain to exit from the European union. And it reminded me of one of the seminal books of the late eighties , 'The Empire Writes Back: Theory and Practice in Post-Colonial Literature'  a  book on postcolonialism, written by Bill Ashcroft, Gareth Griffiths and Helen Tiffin. 

Mr. Johnson spoke eloquently and quite well. He spoke of hope against fear and gloom,spoke of taking back 'control' , of economic policies, trade and 'border', take back control of democracy.And the bottom line, he felt ,was about the fundamental question of democracy! He referred to the EU referendum as the once in a life time opportunity.And in a subtle way he was trying to push forward the argument that this very referendum on EU ,on 23rd June will be  a lesson in democracy!Indeed!!
As a citizen of India ,I felt wow!! Such a speech! A country, which imperialised two-third of the entire world by 1900 and still with a monarchical head can speak of the 'hope' that 'democracy' shall bring. 

It also made me realise that it is now no more a 'eurocentric' versus 'eorocentric' debate but it is indeed a movement towards Brito-petalistic(my coinage) world view.Who stands to gain? Who shall vote whether to stay with EU or to exit? Who stands to lose? Economics tell us none.It is not about eating more pieces of cake mind you. It is more of policies ,actions initiated and  finding newer markets among demographics. It as usual shall be about more noise than substance. What shall the Britons decide?

1.They shall decide whether the BREXIT shall really cause a 100 billion shock to the European.

2.They shall decide whether exiting shall really push up the costs of day to day living , so much so that it shall take nearly a decade and a half to come out of this shock!

3.They shall decide whether they want to pay an annual sum of over a billion pound to the EU!

4.They shall decide what democracy means or whether it is really something that is applicable to them. 

5.They shall decide which model is better-a nuclear family or a joint one?

Now I gave a cursory hint of the book 'The Empire Writes Back: Theory and Practice in Post-Colonial Literature' and moved on to speak of something else.Why ? Because it struck me,right or wrong, that Empire today is surely writing back. Remember that  people from 54 commonwealth countries who resides in Britain are eligible to vote.

Britain speaks whose voice? Now?

It may be interesting to observe that the people of these commonwealth countries are 'texts' themselves willing to negotiate with 'eurocentrism' !!!

Britain have millions of such residents.And as far as the consequences are concerned some analysts have dismissed the debate of BREXIT as bogus and not worthy of debate. But every noise has its own energy. And negative noises depress the people more.

The European markets are slimming and burning their fat heavily, while  I am writing this blog. It may be possible that the markets correct by a couple of percent more in the few weeks to come. May be even by 10%! Then there will be analysts coming up with the gloom and doom theory! Remember Marc Faber? And the investors, the small ones shall run helter skelter looking for solace and shelter! But to all the investors from Europe and also Britain, it may be a great opportunity to look for excellent stocks for a bargain price!It may be possible to look beyond the major indices where opportunity shall come for cherry picking. And if the investors are able to do the cherry picking after a sound study of the company  fundamentals they shall do very well for themselves. How can we forget how the Grexit bothered the markets world wide, a couple of years back, only to  bring back sanity after a couple of uneasy months.Greek crisis apparently was a more major crisis to handle.Some shorters shall cash in but it is pure suicide to buy a wrong story however critical it may sound.

BREXIT shall and must provide reasonable opportunities to all the long term investors. This can be said with some degree of optimism.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice. Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.

100 baggers! Are they for real?

And the answer is

Yes!

We do not need to look back a long time to say that we had companies which used to be good companies with reasonable market capitalization and now they are behemoths.A good look at our own bourses over the period of last 20 years and we get our answer. Of course the SENSEX itself has become a 100 bagger over last 30 years. And individual companies have done much more than that. I am not going to talk about the TCS, Infosys or other behemoths. Neither of BOSCH, HUL,ITC  or other such companies. Their history is well documented over a 1000 more blogs and websites. Let us talk of some companies that have not been part of the  indices and yet have done exceptionally over last 15-20 years.

Here is a list of couple of companies which have become multi-baggers over this span of time.And remember these stocks are shown only for purpose of illustration. 'Patient Investor and opulence' do not suggest, intend or seriously advice to invest . You your own financial discretion or consult a proper financial adviser.

Name of Share	Value	Value on 8.6.2016	Last dividend paid
Hindustan Zinc	Rs 1.90 on 1.1.2001	Rs 170.25	Rs 24
Exide Industries	Re. 0.84 on  1.7.2002	Rs.163.5	Rs 1.60
DHFL	Rs.2.46 on  7.10.2002	Rs. 200.45	Rs.3
Cipla	Rs 4.25 on  1.1.2001	Rs. 472.15	Rs. 2
Eicher Motors	Rs 20.85 on 1.1.2001	Rs 18,824.55	Rs. 100
La Opala RG Ltd	Rs.3.93 on 16.3.2007	Rs.554	Rs.1.3
Tata Coffee	Re. 0.23 0n 16.8.2002	Rs. 86.9	Rs. 1.3

* Close price adjusted for dividends and bonus and  splits.

Now we have all heard people saying that past performances are not indicative of  future accomplishments. And it is equally true that the stocks those have become 100 baggers in the last couple of years may not replicate their performances owing to their mammoth sizes. But as Charlie Munger says that even if you buy a very good company at an expensive price it shall still create substantial wealth for you in the future. And in order to look frantically for 100 baggers please do not invest in penny stocks or start up companies.

Never dare to invest in penny stocks or start up companies unless you have it extremely well researched or you are a certain Mr. Buffet!!!

So people certainly have had their shares which became 100 baggers. India has a couple of them. Mr. Ramdeo Agarwal. Mr. Ramesh Damani , are few names to reckon with . And as the famous saying of Mr. Agarwal and his company goes " Buy Right! Sit Tight!" But then comes a series of questions.


1. How do we buy a 100 bagger?
2. When to buy a stock so that it can become a 100 bagger?
3. How long does it take to become a hundred bagger?
4.Who can guide me to buy a 100 bagger?
5. How much money is needed to buy stocks so that is become 100 baggers?
6. How will India do as a country in next 10 years?
7.What are the sectors that will be the most influential during these years?

We cannot buy a multi-bagger. We can hope that it becomes one with right management and justified growth projection. To be very honest we can hope to buy a hundred bagger when investor confidence is at its lowest . For example 2008 was a fabulous year for such investments. This February also gave us a very good opportunity to investment in some potentially good stocks for the future. As we have seen that it takes more than 15-20 years for a very good quality stock to become a multi-bagger. The bottom line is if you can invest and sit down doing nothing over this very long period of time  the you can certainly make the most out of it.   No one can guide people to buy 100 baggers. People bring out probability studies based on fundamentals of the company. India has been doing splendidly well for the last couple of years. And in 2016 , India has overtaken China as the largest growing economy in the World clocking  a fantastic 7.5% growth with China following closely with 6.8 % ,which too is very good. The economists expect India to be clocking an astronomical 8-8.25% GDP growth in the next nine to ten  years which by any standards of economic is mesmerizing, to say the least.Now what are the sectors that are going to do well? Think !

Well the logistics do very well when a country's economy booms. The infrastructure does well .The banking does well. The ports do well. Metals and mining do well. Healthcare does well .And... the niche company does the best! If you are interested in niche companies you can go through one of my older blogs. The link is here.

http://investorbodhisattwa.blogspot.in/2016/05/niche-market-and-emerging-companies.html

Ok. So there must be some way out to figure exactly what fundamentals allow a company to go the 100 bagger way. According to experts and long time investors the first thing you need is extreme patience. The problem is people become long term investors only after they have invested and had seen their shares going down by 30-40% !! And there will be people who invested in the most opportune of all moments and saw their shares doubling in six to eight months. The fear of losing all the 'profit' they sell them as fast as they can. And when they find their sold shares going beyond the price they have sold they invest in the same shares again after they have risen substantially. And the inevitable happens. The shares correct by 50% and they are out of the market never to return. Do you sell you business when it is doing extremely well? You only invest more time and energy to see it growing and expanding like anything. So goes the case with a share. A share is part ownership of a business. If the business does well consistently over the years so does the share.

The second most important thing while looking for a multi-bagger is its ability and potential to grow and grow consistently. All 100 baggers have grown consistently over a very long period of time.

The third important characteristic of a 100 bagger is its return on invested capital . Usually a 100 bagger have ROIC  between 18-20%  every year.

Increase in share holders fund is another important characteristics. Share holders fund get increased by an impressive rate every year suggesting that the company is growing and has sufficient ability to reward its investors.

Beware of companies that take debts or leverage itself for inordinate expansion mode which ultimately causes the downfall of the company. Never invest in such companies whose debt-equity ratio is more than 2 or has been increasing over the last five or six years. they are sure shot success for doom ,gloom and absolute destruction.

Though companies at a point of time need leverage to expand, yet it must be kept in mind that companies growing at superior speed must stop when the steam is out.

Some analysts look at PEG(Price-earnings growth ratio) to determine the future revenue of the company.

Some analysts look to the ROE(Return on Equity) for potential multi-bagger. Buffet felt that companies with ROE over 14  will do reasonably good for themselves.

And the most important thing of all is to avoid all the noises made by the business channels about the macro events.

IGNORE THE MACRO EVENTS!   

If the shares fall below their intrinsic value buy them!

So its no point thinking what can be a 100-bagger. Think what company is going to do extremely well in next 20 years, which will also indicate the sustainability of the company!

1. Aim to beat inflation.
2. Aim to beat expenses.

To live without financial worries aim the following:

Simplest of equations:

1.Income> expenses
2. Investments>expenses
3.Returns> Expenses.


Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only, and the content herein should not be mistaken for professional financial advice.Please contact an independent financial professional or adviser for advice regarding your particular and specific situation.